DEMS IN TROUBLE? – AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  I added a question mark because I see great overconfidence on the part of some Republicans, who simply assume the party will make great gains in November.  And yet, polling does suggest that the Dems may not have a merry Christmas.  From National Journal: 

President Obama's approval rating remains ominously weak among the constituencies that could tip the battle for control of the Senate in November, the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll has found.

Obama's overall approval, standing at just 41 percent, remains near the lowest level ever recorded in the 20 Heartland Monitor Polls since April 2009. And only one in four adults say his actions are increasing economic opportunity for people like them, also among his worst showings in the polls. His numbers are especially meager among the non-college and older whites that dominate the electorate in the seven red-leaning states where Democrats must defend Senate seats in November.

These findings are taken from the 20th quarterly Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll conducted by the Strategic Communications Practice of FTI Consulting. The full results, exploring Americans' views on how to drive social and political change, will be published next month in National Journal's magazine.

The one solace for Democrats in the new poll is that Congress is even more unpopular than the president. Just 11 percent of those surveyed said they approved of Congress's performance, while 80 percent disapproved. In the five times the Heartland Monitor has tested Congress' rating since November 2012, only last November did it score more poorly, with just 9 percent approving and 84 percent disapproving.

Generally, though, attitudes toward the incumbent president have played a bigger role than views about Congress in shaping the results of mid-term elections. And attitudes toward Obama, and the nation's direction, remain distinctly chilly.

COMMENT:  Let us be optimistic, but also remember that the election is six months away.  That's 48 lifetimes in politics.  Anything can happen between now and November, including an eruption of Republican suicidal instincts.  And there's no app for that.

April 29, 2014